Regional powers vie for influence in the Sahel
The Sahel region, geographically stretching from Mali to Chad, hardly presents itself as an economic haven. Far from being a magnet for foreign direct investment like Singapore, its nations grapple with significant developmental challenges. Key economic indicators for Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger reveal a complex web of disadvantages. Mali, for instance, has a youthful population with 47% of its 25.9 million inhabitants under 15, limited arable land at just 25%, and ranks 188th out of 193 countries on the UNDP’s Human Development Index. Nearly 45% of its populace lives below the poverty line. Burkina Faso and Niger face comparable struggles, with 40% and 60.5% of their populations, respectively, living in poverty according to the World Bank. These three landlocked nations, now under military rule, have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), seemingly with tacit support from the Kremlin, aiming to diminish remaining French influence. Their declared anti-French, anti-Western, and anti-democratic stance, while promising prosperity allegedly withheld by European powers, has yet to deliver tangible improvements. Amidst this complex backdrop, two neighboring states, Algeria and Morocco, are stepping forward with their own strategic overtures.
Morocco’s atlantic gateway vision
Through the ambitious Dakhla Atlantic port project, Morocco is establishing what could become a strategic equivalent to its Tanger Med port in Western Sahara, serving as a vital link to Europe. Slated for completion in 2028 and operational by 2029, this infrastructure is designed to function as a primary entry point for West Africa and a transit route to the Americas. Rabat has already engaged with the three leaders of the AES, presenting a compelling geopolitical proposition: a deep-water port, potentially complemented by a future railway line (though not yet confirmed), that would grant these landlocked nations crucial access to the Atlantic Ocean, significantly alleviating their isolation. The overarching goal is to stimulate economic growth within the Sahelian states. For Morocco, which faces geographical constraints due to its ongoing dispute with Algeria, this initiative serves multiple purposes. It aims to demonstrate that its development strategy for Western Sahara will yield benefits across the entire sub-region, and that fostering economic progress can indirectly counter the influence of jihadist groups destabilizing the Sahel by offering opportunities to a disenfranchised youth. The Sahel faces a rapidly expanding population, projected to double within the next decade.
Algeria’s trans-saharan gas pipeline initiative
Algeria, despite previous strained relations with Niger, reconciled with Abderrahmane Tiani, the head of Niger’s military government, in mid-February. As part of this renewed engagement, Algeria proposed commencing construction on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) segment through Niger immediately after Ramadan. This extensive 4800-kilometer pipeline, originating in Nigeria, would traverse Niger before reaching Algeria, ultimately supplying natural gas to Europe. Sonatrach, Algeria’s national hydrocarbons company, is slated to manage the construction within Niger and crucially, provide training to Nigerien personnel for its operation. This commitment to local capacity building represents a distinct advantage over approaches often seen from other international partners, such as China, which rarely offers such comprehensive local training for managing national resources.
Converging yet clashing regional strategies
Recent discussions in Madrid and Washington (February 23rd and 24th) have focused on Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara. Should this five-decade-long conflict finally find a resolution, Algeria and Morocco could potentially collaborate on the Sahel’s volatile security and demographic challenges. Such cooperation would prevent the Alliance of Sahel States from exploiting the existing rivalries between these two influential regional capitals.
Jihadism finds fertile ground in the combined scourges of poverty and authoritarian governance. Both Algeria and Morocco, independently, aim to disrupt this destructive cycle. Each nation leverages its distinct strengths: Algiers offers its hydrocarbon resources and the technical expertise of Sonatrach, while Rabat champions its grand infrastructure initiatives and its aspiration to serve as a pivotal hub connecting three continents—Africa, America, and Europe. These two strategies, inherently complementary in their goals for regional stability, are unfortunately set against each other by the enduring Sahrawi conflict. This geopolitical friction presents a significant missed opportunity for broader cooperation.
*A notable past incident involved Mali’s Prime Minister, Abdoulaye Maïga, who on September 26, 2025, accused Algeria of “supporting international terrorism.” In response, Algeria’s Foreign Minister, Ahmed Attaf, dismissed the accusation as “soldier’s drivel.”
