World cup 2026: why draws are becoming the norm in group stages

The expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup format—featuring 48 teams and 32 advancing to the Round of 16—has introduced an unexpected twist: strategic draws. With multiple teams realizing that a goalless outcome could secure qualification for both sides, the phenomenon is reshaping group stage dynamics.

In Group F, Japan and Sweden delivered a tactical stalemate. After a cagey opening half, both teams pushed forward in the second period (Maeda 56’, Elanga 62’), yet the final whistle confirmed a 1-1 draw—one that suited both sides perfectly.

The trend is even more pronounced in Group B, where Australia and Paraguay settled for a goalless draw. With four points each, both nations secured their spots in the next round, proving once again how calculated indifference can outweigh aggressive play.

Algeria vs Austria: a calculated equilibrium

As the final matchday approaches, all eyes are on the Algeria vs Austria clash in Group J. A draw here would advance both teams, though Algeria might prefer a third-place finish to face Belgium or Switzerland over Spain. Austria, however, cannot afford a loss—three points would leave them dangerously close to elimination. A draw, therefore, appears mutually beneficial.

The Ghana vs Croatia fixture in Group L presents a different calculus. While Ghana has already secured four points, Croatia desperately needs at least a draw. Their potential Round of 16 opponent would likely be Colombia or Portugal, depending on other results.

ranking of the best third-placed teams

1 – Sweden (4 points, goal difference +0)
2 – Ecuador (4 points, +0)
3 – Bosnia (4 points, -1)
4 – Paraguay (4 points, -2)
5 – Senegal (3 points, +2)
6 – Iran (3 points, +0)
7 – Croatia (3 points, -1) match to play
8 – South Korea (3 points, -1)
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9 – Algeria (3 points, -2) match to play
10 – Scotland (3 points, -3)
11 – Uruguay (2 points, -1) eliminated
12 – DR Congo (1 point, -2) match to play

Teams in italics are already through to the Round of 16. Tiebreakers follow FIFA’s standard criteria: points, goal difference, goals scored, fair-play ranking, and pre-tournament FIFA ranking.