The Donald Trump administration is actively exploring the potential for military strikes against the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), an Al Qaïda affiliate operating in Mali. This strategic consideration emerges as the security landscape across the Sahel continues to deteriorate, and Malian forces, despite backing from the Russian Africa Corps, struggle to regain a lasting advantage against armed groups.

Washington considers intervention against JNIM

The United States may soon re-engage its military assets in Mali. Discussions are underway within the Trump administration regarding authorization for strikes against JNIM, which has solidified its position as one of the primary jihadist organizations active in the Sahel region.

However, the prospect of such an intervention has sparked internal debate within the American administration. Several high-ranking officials are divided on the advisability of military action. Sebastian Gorka, the White House National Security Council’s senior director for counter-terrorism, stands among the proponents advocating for military engagement.

An American official, responding to inquiries about this information, neither confirmed nor denied the potential for strikes. Nevertheless, the official emphasized Washington’s encouragement for North African and West African governments to acquire American military equipment and services to bolster their counter-terrorism efforts.

The same official characterized terrorism in the Sahel as a “multinational problem,” urging regional partners and NATO allies to support the Alliance of Sahel States in its fight against JNIM and the Islamic State organization. The official also asserted that “the responsibility for the deteriorating security situation rests with Russia,” deeming Moscow an “ineffective security partner for Mali.”

The Pentagon declined to comment on these developments. The State Department confined its statement to unequivocally condemning “terrorist activities in Mali.” Since 2018, Washington has officially designated JNIM as a foreign terrorist organization.

Africa Corps faces worsening security conditions

This American deliberation coincides with a continued worsening of the military situation in Mali. In recent months, JNIM has intensified its offensives against Malian forces, at times coordinating with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA). In April, this alliance spearheaded one of the most significant offensives against Malian authorities in years, leading to the loss of several strategic positions in the country’s northern regions.

In this challenging environment, the Africa Corps, a structure overseen by Russia’s Ministry of Defense and officially replacing the Wagner Group in Mali, has consequently adjusted its operational deployment. An analysis indicates that Russian forces are now increasingly concentrating their resources on safeguarding Bamako, critical infrastructure, and Malian authorities, while reducing their permanent presence in certain northern areas of the country.

This shift follows several military setbacks experienced by Malian forces and their Russian partners in confrontations with JNIM and the FLA. Independent analyses suggest that the ambitious objectives articulated during the strengthening of the security partnership between Bamako and Moscow have yet to be realized, despite substantial resources being mobilized.

Beyond operational difficulties, allegations of abuses targeting Malian military personnel and Africa Corps members persist. Accounts have detailed violence against civilians in the Timbuktu region. Malian authorities have not issued comments on these accusations.

A potential American intervention would signify a notable shift in Washington’s strategy for the Sahel. Following the gradual withdrawal of Western forces from several countries in the region and Mali’s closer alignment with Russia, the United States now appears to be contemplating a more direct role in the fight against jihadist groups. As of now, no definitive decision has been announced, and discussions within the Trump administration remain ongoing.