Mali’s conflict: winning hearts, not just battles

Mali’s security landscape is experiencing a swift and alarming decline. Coordinated offensives by jihadist groups, coupled with separatist movements in the nation’s northern regions, are exerting multifaceted strategic pressure on the Malian state. Yet, beneath this evident turmoil, a more profound transformation is unfolding. While less dramatic than direct combat, this shift is infinitely more crucial: the conflict’s center of gravity is moving. What is currently at stake in Mali extends far beyond a purely military confrontation.

For over a decade, the Malian crisis has been primarily viewed through the lens of immediate security concerns. The deployment of national forces, supported sequentially by various international partners, aimed at achieving stability through military strength. While this strategy managed to temporarily curb certain destabilizing forces, it ultimately failed to deliver the fundamental, long-term structural changes that were anticipated.

Political vacuum filled by armed groups

Instead, this security-first approach inadvertently fostered a strategic misconception: the belief that restoring security would automatically pave the way for the state’s return. However, Mali’s current reality demonstrates the opposite. A government can maintain military projection capabilities while simultaneously losing political, social, and symbolic control over its own territory.

Across numerous areas in central and northern Mali, the locus of power has undergone a profound transformation. The state has not merely withdrawn; it has been supplanted. Various armed factions, both jihadist and non-jihadist, have incrementally established alternative forms of governance. To varying extents, these groups now fulfill critical functions: local security, conflict resolution, economic regulation, and social organization.

This reordering of power isn’t solely based on coercion. It also emerges from a growing disconnect between the central state and segments of the populace. In these regions, the scarcity of public services, the fragility of administrative links, and the perception of a remote authority have created a void that other actors have adeptly filled. In politics, a vacuum never truly exists; it is invariably occupied.

The decisive battle: legitimacy

The Malian crisis has now entered a phase where military action, while essential, is no longer sufficient. The true struggle unfolds elsewhere: in the capacity to cultivate and project legitimacy.

Who genuinely safeguards the populace? Who delivers justice perceived as equitable? Who embodies a credible and predictable authority? These questions now shape local decisions. Within this paradigm, military superiority no longer guarantees victory. In fact, it may prove ineffective in the long run if not accompanied by a comprehensive political and social re-engagement.

Rethinking the strategy for Mali’s future

Escaping the current stalemate necessitates a fundamental shift in strategy. The objective is no longer merely to reclaim territory or neutralize armed factions. It demands the rebuilding of a state presence capable of enduring integration within communities. This requires an integrated approach, meticulously weaving together security, political, and social dimensions. The state must re-establish its visibility, not solely through its coercive power, but through its demonstrable utility to citizens.

This passes through:

• The effective restoration of sovereign functions, delivered as close as possible to the populace.
• Re-investing in territories through credible administrative and social frameworks.
• Rebuilding local chains of trust and communication.
• The capacity to regain the initiative in shaping perceptions and narratives.

In essence, the goal is not merely to reassert state authority, but to render it genuinely legitimate once more.

Mali is not an isolated case; in many respects, it serves as a crucial laboratory for understanding the evolving nature of contemporary conflicts across the Sahel. In this vast region, competition among various actors transcends mere military engagement. It is part of a broader struggle for societal organization, territorial control, and influence over populations. This fundamental shift compels us to re-evaluate traditional concepts of warfare and stabilization. Power is no longer solely defined by coercive capacity, but by the ability to establish an accepted order.

Mali’s open equation for stability

The Malian crisis has progressed to a stage where the critical issue is no longer just territorial control, but the comprehensive reconstruction of the state’s political and social authority. The true struggle is not confined to front lines; it lies in the capacity to regain legitimacy, prove useful, and secure acceptance from the populace. In the Sahel, no territory remains unoccupied indefinitely. When a state recedes, other actors inevitably step in. However, sustainable stabilization in Mali also hinges on the gradual re-engagement of political processes within the national arena.

This outlook remains particularly challenging amidst a landscape characterized by weakening political parties, the marginalization or exile of many civilian leaders, and the overwhelming dominance of security-centric approaches. Consequently, the central question transcends merely re-establishing territorial control. Instead, it focuses on the conditions under which a credible political space can be revitalized to support state reconstruction and re-establish shared legitimacy.