Macron’s direct critique signals a new era for France and Sahel military regimes

Emmanuel Macron has chosen a confrontational tone to characterize the state of relations between France and the military governments of the Sahel. His assertion that Paris was “paid back with ingratitude” represents an uncommonly direct acknowledgment of a diplomatic cycle closing after more than a decade. This pointed declaration is unambiguously aimed at the ruling juntas in Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey, three capitals that have successively informed France of the termination of bilateral military cooperation.

A presidential pronouncement solidifying the Sahelian estrangement

The language employed by the occupant of the Elysée stands in stark contrast to the diplomatic caution typically exercised when dealing with African partners. By emphasizing France’s significant human and financial sacrifices, Emmanuel Macron appears to attribute responsibility for the breakdown in relations to the transitional authorities that emerged from the coups of 2020, 2022, and 2023. This discourse also resonates with a domestic audience in France, where the Sahelian developments are largely perceived as a major strategic setback following the forced withdrawal of Operation Barkhane in 2022.

However, such presidential rhetoric risks further complicating an already delicate situation. In both Bamako and Niamey, the official narrative has been built upon condemning what is portrayed as an intrusive, even neocolonial, French presence. Each grievance-laden statement from the Elysée inadvertently fuels the sovereignist discourse championed by leaders like Colonels Assimi Goïta, Ibrahim Traoré, and Abdourahamane Tiani. European chancelleries observing these developments are concerned that such explicit language could also hinder their remaining communication channels with Sahelian capitals.

The Alliance of Sahel States faces French disengagement

Since its creation in September 2023, and subsequent transformation into a confederation in July 2024, the Alliance des États du Sahel (AES) has seen its three military regimes accelerate their diplomatic reorientation. With their departure from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), growing ties with Moscow through Africa Corps (the successor to Wagner), and outreach to Ankara and Tehran, Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey are rapidly recalibrating their geopolitical alignment. France, which once maintained considerable economic leverage through entities like the CFA franc, Orange, TotalEnergies, and Eramet, now observes its influence diminishing.

In practical terms, the announced departure of the final French troops from Chad and Senegal by the end of 2024 completes Paris’s military redeployment from the Sahelo-Saharan front. The French presence in West Africa, which numbered over 5,000 personnel in 2020, is now reduced to a residual footprint, primarily focused on training and intelligence. This contraction fundamentally alters France’s long-standing approach to influence, which was historically underpinned by force projection.