Gabon’s escalating public debt: a critical financial outlook towards 2027
Gabon’s public debt is on a concerning upward trajectory, with projections indicating it will reach 94.3% of the gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027. This path, initiated during the transitional presidency and solidified under the mandate of Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, positions the nation at a critical threshold, significantly surpassing the 70% GDP convergence criteria set by the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC).
A debt trajectory raising alarms among financial partners
The accelerating pace of Gabon’s debt accumulation stands in stark contrast to the commitments made regarding budgetary discipline to multilateral lenders. Despite substantial oil revenues and a rebound in manganese prices—Gabon being a leading global producer—public finances struggle to generate the necessary margins for debt reduction. Debt servicing now consumes an increasing portion of state revenues, thereby diminishing the capacity for vital investments in infrastructure and social services.
This dynamic unfolds as the International Monetary Fund (FMI) suspended its disbursements under the extended credit facility in 2024, citing financial governance discrepancies and expenditure overruns. Without an active program with the Bretton Woods institution, Libreville finds itself compelled to increasingly rely on the regional public securities market and bilateral financing, both of which incur higher costs compared to concessional windows.
The risky gamble of public spending-led recovery
Since assuming power in August 2023 following the overthrow of Ali Bongo Ondimba, General Oligui Nguema has strategically leveraged public contracts as a tool for political legitimation. Numerous projects for road infrastructure, rehabilitation of social facilities, and housing programs have been launched with a proactive display, signaling a clear break from previous management. However, this budgetary impetus has resulted in a widening primary deficit and a build-up of domestic arrears owed to state suppliers.
Specifically, Gabon’s public debt stock is anticipated to climb from approximately 73% of GDP in 2024 to 94.3% in 2027, according to official budget documents. Such a rapid increase over just three fiscal years underscores a growing reliance on borrowing rather than internal tax mobilization to finance the budget. Gabon’s tax pressure rate, historically low for a middle-income country, remains a persistent point of contention with technical partners.
Budgetary sovereignty and investor confidence signals
For a sovereign issuer like Gabon, which participates in international markets through several eurobonds, the evolution of its credit rating is a direct concern. Rating agencies have already revised the country’s outlook multiple times, penalizing the uncertainty surrounding its budgetary trajectory and its capacity to refinance upcoming maturities. A sustained breach of the 90% of GDP mark exposes Libreville to higher costs for its external debt and a shrinking pool of investors willing to subscribe to its issuances.
Within the sub-region, Gabon’s situation is closely observed by CEMAC partners, who fear that an isolated fiscal slippage could destabilize the common foreign exchange reserves managed by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). Regional monetary authorities have repeatedly emphasized the necessity of returning to sustainable debt ratios, particularly as Chad, Congo-Brazzaville, and Cameroon also exhibit strained debt profiles.
The question of the announced trajectory’s political credibility remains. The transition to a civilian constitutional framework, confirmed by the November 2024 referendum and the April 2025 presidential election, theoretically paves the way for the restoration of financial cooperation programs. However, the Gabonese executive must complement its infrastructure ambitions with a credible fiscal consolidation plan—an indispensable condition to prevent public debt from becoming a structural vulnerability for the country’s economy in the medium term.
