During a recent online discussion hosted by journalist Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala, researcher Joshua Z. Walker shared a sobering assessment regarding the ongoing peace process between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. Walker, an Associate Fellow with Chatham House’s Africa program and a Senior Fellow at New York University’s (NYU) Center on International Cooperation, expressed significant apprehension about potential outcomes should Washington’s patience wane amidst the current stalemate.

While prefacing his remarks with a disclaimer of not being a “prophète,” he outlined two potential scenarios. The first envisions a regression to the state of affairs preceding the significant American intervention in 2025, effectively reverting to the regional dynamics observed before Washington’s heightened involvement. The second, and more concerning, possibility is a simple continuation of the existing deadlock.

This latter scenario deeply troubles the expert. He emphasized that even without an explicit M23 withdrawal, “every passing day that the M23 continues to occupy parts of eastern Congo, they become more entrenched.”

According to Walker, the mere passage of time acts as a critical exacerbating factor. “The real fear,” he articulated, “is that we reach a point where, simply through the passage of time, we end up with a situation where a portion of the DRC effectively remains outside government control.”