Côte d’Ivoire cocoa export outlook dimmed by el niño threat
The promising start to Côte d’Ivoire’s 2026-27 cocoa export season—with over 1 million tonnes already contracted—could face disruption from the anticipated arrival of El Niño in July, warn industry insiders and agricultural commodity traders. To manage stock levels, the Conseil du Café et du Cacao (CCC) in Abidjan has increased its premium on additional sales from zero to $135 per tonne above the futures price, according to sector insights.
This surge in demand reflects a tightening market ahead of the new harvest season, slated to begin on September 1st. Yet, despite securing contracts for between 950,000 and 1 million tonnes, industry leaders are exercising caution. « While we’ve seen strong early momentum, we’re deliberately slowing the pace to assess risks », shared a CCC representative under anonymity.
Trading firms project exports to reach 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes, justifying the CCC’s higher premium demands. « Market conditions allow for more assertive pricing. The CCC doesn’t need to lower its premium to secure deals », noted a cocoa trading executive.
However, this positive trend may stall if El Niño materializes, potentially triggering droughts in major cocoa-producing nations like Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria. Such conditions could severely impact output in the coming years.
Industry players highlight another pressing concern: aging plantations and the scarcity of fertilizers and phytosanitary products. « El Niño isn’t the biggest threat to production—it’s the shortage of inputs that’s most alarming », stressed a cocoa exporter based in Abidjan. Many farms in Côte d’Ivoire are decades old and battling pests and diseases, exacerbating the challenge.
