An economist’s candid assessment of Cameroon’s political dynamics ahead of the 2027 double ballot
As Cameroon approaches the crucial double elections in 2027, economist Serge Alain Godong offers a forthright analysis of the nation’s political landscape. Employing concepts from “game theory” and the “prisoner’s dilemma,” Godong elucidates why, in his estimation, Maurice Kamto’s victory in 2018 was improbable and why his path to success in the upcoming polls remains challenging. In a comprehensive document, Godong characterizes the current regime as “openly twilight” and describes an electorate that gravitates towards the certainty of the familiar over the allure of uncertain promises.
“The openly twilight nature of the four-decade-old regime in power more than ever prompts a re-evaluation of the consolidation and change dynamics at play within the Cameroonian public sphere,” writes Serge Alain Godong, an economist with credentials from Sciences-Po Paris, EHESS, and Paris X, in his insightful analysis.
For Godong, the year 2018 serves as a pivotal starting point. “The initial astonishment gradually subsided following the ‘penalty scored,’ which Mr. Kamto Maurice had publicly claimed to have ‘taken’.” Since that period, Paul Biya has been sworn into office, the MRC opposition has seen its influence curtailed, and the majority of Cameroonians “have acknowledged the tranquil continuation of his tenure on the comfortable seat of Etoudi.”
LA SUITE APRÈS LA PUBLICITÉ
Godong’s argument is rooted in “game theory,” built upon two core tenets: first, that humans are fundamentally rational calculators, and second, that they require sufficient information to secure their desired outcomes. An election, in this framework, transforms into “a specific juncture where a particular individual presents a form of contract for the future to a national community.”
However, Godong contends that Kamto struggles to offer a contract more credible than the existing one. “The approximately 8.5 million Cameroonian voters expected to cast their ballots next year would only grant their votes to Mr. Kamto Maurice if they are absolutely convinced that he will, in the years to come, better safeguard their interests than Mr. Biya Paul.”
The economist identifies around 16 million current “winners” within the system, encompassing civil servants, employees in the formal private sector, liberal professionals, and their extended families. “It can therefore be estimated that some 1500 billion F. CFA are annually distributed among […] the approximately 16 million Cameroonians who belong to these beneficiaries.” These individuals gain from public sector salaries, government contracts, and major infrastructure projects. “These are the Cameroonians, along with their close associates, who will undoubtedly vote for the RDPC and its candidate, fully aware of their choice.”
This situation leads to the “prisoner’s dilemma”: in the absence of coordinated information and tangible proof of a superior gain model, voters tend to favor the status quo. “Cameroonians are thus perfectly aware that the current situation is rather disadvantageous; yet, many among them appear to distinctly prefer it to a presumably superior equilibrium position, about which they can assert nothing with certainty.”
The analysis subsequently delves into what Godong terms the “Bamiléké problem.” Citing Meredith Terretta, he recalls the distinction between “gung” and “lepue” — territory and freedom. From this, an “economic and social Darwinism” is said to emanate, often attributed to individuals from the Grassfields region. Consequently, “Mr. Kamto is therefore not perceived through the ordinary lens of a person offering an alternative political proposal […] but rather as a kind of malevolent avatar intent on executing a diabolical scheme.”
Godong describes a “syndrome” distinct from Stockholm Syndrome, characterizing it as a system of “eating together”: “everyone is connected to everyone else by a minor illicit scheme; everyone takes from their neighbor.” This model defines “winners as simply those who ‘eat,’ and losers as those who are hungry.”
Godong’s conclusion is stark: regardless of who emerges victorious, the leader “will have no other choice but to act swiftly and decisively.” Swiftly to redistribute resources, and decisively to elevate the economy as the sole “battleground.” Achieving 6% growth, reducing the deficit, and combating corruption are all deemed “serious and urgent” priorities.
Ultimately, the analyst believes that the political game “will become progressively less sluggish, less rentier.” He also suggests that the nation requires “a strong and committed Paul Biya” to effectively manage the post-election period.
