One year after Trump’s deal: assessing RDC-Rwanda peace progress

The landmark peace agreement brokered by the United States between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda has now reached its first anniversary. Signed in early 2025, the deal aimed to stabilize a region plagued by persistent conflict and cross-border tensions. As the deadline passed, observers are scrutinizing whether the terms have translated into tangible improvements on the ground.

In the months following the agreement, both governments pledged to implement ceasefire protocols and open channels for dialogue. Yet the situation in eastern DRC remains fragile, with sporadic clashes and allegations of continued foreign interference. The M23 rebel group, whose activities were a central focus of negotiations, continues to exert influence in key areas despite initial commitments to disarm.

Military and political responses one year on

The peace framework outlined several critical steps, including the withdrawal of foreign armed groups, the restoration of state authority, and the resumption of economic cooperation. While some progress has been noted in diplomatic channels, military disengagement has proven more elusive. Reports from Goma and surrounding regions indicate that armed men loyal to the M23 still control strategic positions, raising questions about the durability of the ceasefire.

The governments of both Kinshasa and Kigali have faced internal and external pressure to honor their commitments. President Félix Tshisekedi has repeatedly called for the full implementation of the agreement, emphasizing the need for regional stability. Meanwhile, Rwandan President Paul Kagame has reiterated his country’s willingness to collaborate, though critics argue that covert support for non-state actors persists.

Economic and humanitarian implications

Beyond military considerations, the agreement included provisions to revive trade and humanitarian aid flows. Humanitarian organizations have reported mixed results: while some aid corridors have reopened, access to conflict zones remains restricted due to ongoing insecurity. Local communities continue to bear the brunt of displacement and food shortages, underscoring the urgency of sustained peace efforts.

The United States, which played a pivotal role in brokering the deal, has maintained a diplomatic presence to monitor compliance. Analysts suggest that Washington’s continued engagement could be decisive in ensuring long-term success, particularly as neighboring countries watch closely for signs of progress or relapse.

Lessons and the road ahead

As the anniversary passes, the peace process serves as a case study in post-conflict recovery. Success will depend on several factors: the political will of regional leaders, the effectiveness of international oversight, and the ability of local populations to reclaim stability. For now, the agreement remains a fragile foundation—one that requires urgent reinforcement to prevent further deterioration.