Morocco among north african economies most vulnerable to hormuz oil shock
An in-depth analysis by the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) has shed light on the potential fallout of the Iran-United States-Israel conflict and its ripple effects on global energy security. The newly released collective work, Hormuz and the Invisible Fractures: The Price of a Distant War, explores the geopolitical, economic, and security consequences of escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz—a critical maritime chokepoint for global oil and trade flows.
The study brings together insights from prominent international experts, including Abdelhak Bassou, Ferid Belhaj, Ian Lesser, Hafez Ghanem, Hinh T. Dinh, and Rida Lyammouri. Their findings highlight how the crisis extends far beyond regional boundaries, exposing the fragility of a globalized economy heavily reliant on energy, trade, and logistics networks that pass through this strategic corridor. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of the world’s petroleum, natural gas, fertilizers, and international commerce transits, has become a flashpoint with global implications.
The Moroccan economy in the crosshairs
A dedicated chapter by economist Hinh T. Dinh examines the potential economic fallout of a 20% surge in global oil prices on key North African nations, including Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt. Using an input-output economic model, the analysis reveals that Morocco stands out as the most exposed to the repercussions of an oil shock linked to the Hormuz crisis. Several critical sectors—agriculture, construction, transportation, and energy-dependent industries—are identified as particularly vulnerable to such disruptions.
In contrast, Egypt may partially benefit from higher oil prices through increased state petroleum revenues, while Tunisia is expected to experience a relatively balanced impact, despite notable sectoral disparities. The study underscores how Morocco’s economic structure, heavily tied to energy imports and energy-intensive industries, could face significant strain in the event of a prolonged supply disruption or price volatility.
A shifting global order
Beyond economic repercussions, the book delves into the broader geopolitical consequences of the 2026 conflict. Contributors argue that the crisis marks a turning point in the evolution of the international order, reflecting growing fragmentation and the weakening of traditional cooperation and deterrence mechanisms. Ferid Belhaj emphasizes the erosion of multilateral frameworks, while Marcus Vinicius de Freitas points to the emergence of a more multipolar world where conflicts are managed rather than resolved.
Ian Lesser’s contribution focuses on the strain placed on transatlantic relations, noting deepening divergences between the United States and European nations over the use of force and international crisis management. The study also flags heightened risks to African energy security, the delicate balances in the Sahel, and the economic stability of South American nations. Additionally, it highlights the rising geopolitical significance of strategic minerals in shaping new global power dynamics.
The PCNS underscores that this collective work serves as a vital contribution to the ongoing debate on the transformations reshaping the international order. It calls on states to adopt proactive strategies to navigate crises that threaten to disrupt supply chains, energy markets, and geopolitical stability worldwide. The findings offer a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global systems and the potential far-reaching consequences of conflicts in even the most distant regions.
