Demographic shifts challenge electoral fairness

The General Population and Housing Census (RGPH 2024) has uncovered dramatic demographic shifts reshaping Morocco. Rapid urban expansion in peripheral areas contrasts sharply with stagnant rural populations and dwindling historic city centers. Between 2014 and 2024, Morocco’s urban population grew by 2.68 million to reach 23.11 million, while rural areas added just 302,419 residents. Today, 71.2% of Morocco’s 36.83 million citizens live in just five regions: Greater Casablanca-Settat, Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, Marrakech-Safi, Fès-Meknès, and Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceïma.

Urban centers lose residents as suburbs boom

One striking trend is the exodus from historic urban cores to expanding peripheral municipalities. Casablanca’s Anfa district alone lost a quarter of its population in a decade, dropping from 453,000 to 332,000 residents. Yet despite this decline, the area retains its four parliamentary seats—a ratio of 68,707 registered voters per seat. Meanwhile, the neighboring province of Nouaceur saw its population double to 665,000 residents but must make do with just three seats, resulting in a ratio of 155,172 voters per seat.

Extreme disparities in voter-to-representative ratios

The census data reveals stark contrasts in voter representation across Morocco’s electoral map:

• Low-density provinces: Aousserd (2,992 voters per seat), Tarfaya (5,368), Assa-Zag (10,178), Es-Semara (19,712), Boujdour (20,185)
• High-density urban areas: Tanger-Assilah (213,980 voters per seat), Marrakech’s Ménara (176,256), Casablanca’s Sidi Bernoussi (174,501), Nouaceur (155,172), Inezgane-Aït Melloul (151,978)

A single vote in Aousserd carries over 70 times more weight in electing a representative than one cast in Tanger-Assilah.

Political implications of maintaining or reforming electoral boundaries

The Interior Ministry faces a complex balancing act ahead of the 2026 elections. Adjusting electoral boundaries to reflect 2024 population data without increasing the total number of parliamentary seats would require transferring seats from shrinking urban centers to growing peripheries. Such a move would intensify competition in the affected constituencies, potentially benefiting established parties with greater resources.

Conversely, maintaining current boundaries would preserve the advantage currently enjoyed by smaller rural constituencies, where voter turnout often exceeds 90% compared to urban areas where abstention can reach 70-80%. Many urban residents remain registered in their rural hometowns to maintain local political influence, despite living in metropolitan areas.

Strategic challenges for Morocco’s 2026 parliamentary elections

The demographic realities revealed by RGPH 2024 create significant strategic challenges for the upcoming vote. Political parties must navigate several critical factors:

• Mobilizing urban middle class: Disillusioned by inflation and feeling excluded from targeted social assistance programs, this demographic showed high abstention rates in 2021. Their potential return to polling stations in 2026 could significantly alter political outcomes.
• Opposition strategies: Parties like the PJD may seek to capitalize on urban discontent, while ruling coalition members (RNI, PAM, Istiqlal) must defend their economic and social records in a post-inflation context.
• Electoral reform debate: The Interior Ministry is under pressure to address the growing representational imbalance while maintaining territorial equity—a technical and political tightrope to walk.

With official announcements on electoral boundary revisions still pending, the census data has already ignited essential debates about democratic representation in Morocco. The September 2026 parliamentary elections will test whether the country’s political system can adapt to its rapidly changing demographic landscape.