Niger’s governance under Tiani: three years of escalating crises

From coup promise to persistent insecurity

On July 26, 2023, General Abdourahamane Tiani seized power in Niger, vowing to rescue the nation from what he described as an uncontrollable security crisis. Three years later, the reality starkly contrasts with those initial pledges. Instead of stability, the country grapples with deepening insecurity, economic strain, frayed diplomatic ties, and shrinking fiscal space. A closer examination of key indicators reveals a nation trapped in a spiral of mutually reinforcing crises.

Security promises unfulfilled despite military escalation

The junta’s primary justification for its takeover was to restore security more effectively than civilian rule. Yet, the situation remains dire. Armed groups linked to the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (EIGS) continue to expand their operations across multiple regions.

The nature of attacks has shifted from isolated military outposts to more strategic targets, including:

• Military and logistical convoys
• Civilian villages and populations
• Critical road networks
• Economic infrastructure
• Supply chains

In some areas, communities live under near-constant threat, severely restricting mobility for both civilians and administrative services. The consequences are severe:

• Abandonment of farmlands
• Slowdown in domestic trade
• School closures in affected zones
• Barriers to healthcare access
• Surge in internally displaced persons

The human toll continues to rise, with rural populations bearing the brunt of a conflict that shows no signs of abating despite the change in leadership.

Armed forces stretched thin despite budgetary shifts

Since the coup, a significant portion of public funds has been diverted to military expenditure. Yet, this increased spending has not translated into decisive battlefield gains.

Niger’s armed forces face compounded challenges:

• A vast, difficult-to-control territory
• Multiple operational fronts
• Highly mobile terrorist groups
• Persistent logistical constraints

The relentless pressure on military personnel has led to equipment wear, operational fatigue, and rising costs. Each new attack underscores the limitations of a strategy that relies heavily on military force while neglecting economic, social, and territorial root causes.

Economic slowdown fueled by regional isolation

Niger’s economy remains heavily dependent on regional trade. The prolonged closure of the border with Bénin, compounded by regional diplomatic tensions, has disrupted traditional economic circuits.

The once-thriving Cotonou-Niamey corridor, a linchpin of Niger’s trade competitiveness, now faces:

• Extended supply delays
• Soaring transportation costs
• Frequent stock shortages
• Generalized price increases

Households are feeling the strain, with food, medicine, construction materials, and consumer goods becoming increasingly unaffordable. The purchasing power of families is eroding, exacerbating hardships across the country.

Border cities pay the price of diminished trade

Transborder commerce has long been the lifeblood of cities like Gaya. Regional commercial hubs and major highways now witness a sharp decline in activity, hitting key economic players hard:

• Transport and logistics operators
• Customs brokers
• Small-scale traders
• Hotels and restaurants reliant on road traffic

The contraction in trade has also slashed state revenue, further constraining public investment capacity.

Private investment stifled by instability

Investors prioritize stability, clear legal frameworks, and reliable trade relations. Yet Niger’s current climate presents multiple red flags:

• Ongoing sanctions and diplomatic friction
• Logistical bottlenecks
• High security risks
• Regulatory unpredictability

This uncertainty has deterred new capital inflows, with some businesses delaying or canceling projects altogether.

Oil pipeline project at risk amid diplomatic tensions

The Agadem-Sèmè oil pipeline, one of Niger’s most significant economic ventures in recent years, was touted as a potential engine for national development. However, persistent tensions between Niamey and Cotonou have jeopardized the project.

Beyond geopolitical disputes, any uncertainty surrounding the pipeline sends a discouraging signal to international investors who favor long-term commitments in stable environments. The oil sector, once seen as a growth catalyst, now stands as a symbol of diplomatic strain.

Diplomatic realignment yields mixed results

The military regime has drastically reshaped Niger’s foreign policy, severing long-standing partnerships with Western nations while forging closer ties with Russia and joining the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) alongside Mali and Burkina Faso.

While framed as a quest for regained sovereignty, this shift has yet to address the country’s core challenges. Niger now faces:

• Reduced international funding
• Diminished technical cooperation
• Strained dialogue with neighboring states
• Limited access to regional mechanisms

The proclaimed political sovereignty thus comes with new economic and diplomatic constraints.

Dependence persists under a different guise

The departure of French forces was heralded as a complete reclaiming of national autonomy. However, military cooperation with Russian partners has rapidly intensified.

This shift raises a critical question: has Niger truly eliminated foreign dependence, or merely changed its form? On the ground, national security still relies partly on external support, challenging the official narrative of strategic autonomy.

Political rhetoric vs. daily hardships

Faced with persistent difficulties, the government has leaned heavily on a narrative blaming external actors for the nation’s woes. Disputes with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Bénin, and former partners like France dominate public discourse.

While this approach fuels a narrative of national resilience, it does little to address pressing daily concerns such as:

• Rising inflation
• Youth unemployment
• Limited access to public services
• Declining purchasing power
• Food insecurity

For many citizens, tangible results now outweigh political speeches in importance.

Public services buckle under financial strain

The surge in military spending has placed immense pressure on public finances, leaving social sectors struggling with scarce resources. The consequences are visible:

• Insufficient school infrastructure
• Supply shortages in healthcare facilities
• Delays in public investments
• Decline in local services

The risk is clear: as military expenditures rise, development investments stall—despite their critical role in addressing the root causes of insecurity.

A society under mounting pressure

The crisis’ ripple effects extend beyond economic indicators, reshaping daily life. Households confront a growing web of challenges:

• Persistent price hikes
• Fewer job opportunities
• Reduced incomes in border regions
• Economic uncertainty

This compounded strain weakens social cohesion and increases vulnerability for the most marginalized populations.

Governance model tested by its own contradictions

Three years after the coup, Niger finds itself trapped in a paradox. The junta arrived promising restored security, enhanced sovereignty, and improved living standards. Yet the data reveals a starkly different reality: persistent insecurity, economic slowdown, fiscal strain, and deeper diplomatic isolation. The over-reliance on military spending, regional tensions, and structural economic weaknesses have created a vicious cycle where each crisis reinforces the others, making progress increasingly elusive.